I don’t have an opinion on the vote in Britain that will see it “leave the EU.” I’m not sure what it means for the rest of the world, if anything.
I’m guessing this is about the desire by the majority in Britain to call their own shots, financially speaking, and to have control on such issues as immigration.
I also know that some younger people, i.e. millennials, see the vote as a setback for their futures.
Do you have any thoughts you would like to share on the outcome of the vote?
The big Q is: how is the skd? And how do you deal with the b-flies? Good weekend for a cool plunge in the lake, n’est-ce pas? That’s a brexit. On the serious, the Brits are always mucking about stirring the pot. Hope they keep the ripples to a minimum though. But you get bet your bottom somebody is making big $ from this. Bonne fête nationale chère %@%D%*
Bonne fête to you, too, my friend. (Going skinnydipping later; black flies are gone.)
The main reason for the referendum was David Cameron’s attempt to settle the divisions in the Conservative Party over our being in the European Union.
He promised a new deal to keep everyone happy, negotiated a bit of window dressing that convinced no one, and called the referendum quickly so as to get it out of the way and forgotten before he had to start planning the next general election.
Once the referendum campaign began it took on a life of its own, but the main contenders on both sides were all from the same party. As the arguing went on it got out of control, with opinions and wishful thinking being traded as facts, and real facts thin on the ground.
The things people ended up voting on had little to do with the original concept, and have exposed the yawning gap between “the people” and those who run things, either by election or by wealth and position in big business.
Those outside the country who thought it would be just an internal UK spat have found themselves caught up in it after all – the UK is a major cash contributor to the EU (and therefore to the poorer members of it) and the referendum result has emboldened those elsewhere in the EU who want change or exit. So now their leaders are having to rethink their positions.
It’s gonna get messy.
Thanks for that excellent analysis, Peter.
It looks like David Cameron miscalculated big time.
I’m wondering about the future of the United Kingdom, as Scotland now seems likely to hold a second independence referendum, this time pegged to the issue of staying in the EU.
One is asking: “does the tail wag the dog. Or the dog wag the tail? Ans: You need both. Unless the tail got docked. But the dog will survive. The tail? %@
Bleary eyed, this morning, I’m thinking back to just over a year ago, to when I was also up all night watching the British Parliamentary elections where David Cameron came away with far more seats than expected and brought his Conseratives their first majority in nearly 20 years. I’m also thinking back to few years ago, watching not so late into the night as the Scotish referendum went down by a wider than expected margin. Now, how things have changed.
This E.U. referendum reminds me of that old poem of how the kingdom was lost for the loss of a horse, in that one miscalculation can set-off a series of events which may snowball into tremendous upheaval. David Cameron calling this referendum, only the third in UK history, thinking it would put the Europe Question to rest for a generation, has now brought about not only his own downfall, but may have set in motion the dissolution of the United Kingdom, (as well as the E.U.)
I think the Labour Party may be the unintended beneficiary of this referendum. This tested their leader before needing to follow him into a General Election, and proved that he probably should be replaced by someone more compelling.
I do find parliamentary forms of government fascinating. I watch as leaders call early elections when they think it most advantageous, then losing as everything unravels in just a few weeks or less (i.e. Pauline Marois.) I believe Margaret Thatcher’s ascendency began when she challenged a former Conservative Prime Minister who had called an early election, which they lost. In the States, our leaders just have to face set elections, which is sometimes like being in a canoe heading towards a raging waterfall, but it’s less exciting than the gamble taken with an early election.
In all seriousness, last night may have been a monumentally historic night. We’ll have to wait and see if it starts a domino effect. All from a miscalculation by a Prime Minister in a seemingly stronger-than-ever position, just a few months ago.
I wonder if Britain can change its collective mind, say they made a mistake, and stay within the EU. Could the vote face a court challenge? Already, Northern Ireland is suggesting London does not have a mandate to take it out of the EU.
Perhaps a second referendum might be held on the issue?
I was thinking, as I watched the BBC, as it became clear this would only be decided by 3 or 4 percentage points, the Stay side kept saying that if the Leave side won by just one vote the decision must be respected, but I didn’t hear that from the Leave side. I think if the referendum had gone the other way, the Leave side probably would have started planning for another try. The question would not have been settled, and the Leave supporters had greater resolve. It was like the Stay side went into this duel with one single shot while the Leave side had unlimited ammunition, they could keep trying.
Cameron really was foolish going into this with his own party clearly divided. It was Conseratives fighting each other, Labour being led by a guy who seemed almost undecided on the issue, himself, and the Liberal Democrats being strong Stay supporters, but their numbers badly reduced after the General Election last year. I don’t know what the hell Cameron was thinking, calling the referendum now.
Right now, the Stay folks seem dis-spirited, just stunned, but maybe they will recognize that this was such a close result that they can make the case that the populace are too divided on this issue for the result to stand. I rather doubt it, but it’s still early into this new European world. They need a leader, though, and both major party leaders are on their way out.
I’m waiting to see what the Leave leaders now have to say about their plans. There were some saying the Leave folks really weren’t expecting they could win until the last couple weeks, and they may not have really prepared for this situation they find themselves in, now.
It’s all pretty unbelievable.
I think it may be challenged in the courts, and the decision to leave won’t stand. Call it a hunch . . .
And who was it that said: “.. and in the end the lawyers clean up all details”. But we do wish to be “civilized”. Hopefully it stays that way considering the state of man at the present moment %@
They do have over 1 million signatures on a petition, already, demanding another vote which would require a 60% majority for a departure from the E.U. to go ahead. I’ve been wondering why they didn’t institute such a threshold before? Having upheaval like this based on a referendum decided by a simple majority, just doesn’t make for a result the nation can move forward with smoothly. Another matter which should have been thought out before calling the referendum in the first place.
The E.U. is saying, if the U.K. wants to leave, fine, then let them get the process started right away. None of this waiting months to choose a new PM. If you don’t like our company, don’t hang around any longer than necessary, it seems.
Some good commentary here. Not so much my original post, but the replies to it: http://warriorsavant.livejournal.com/583235.html?view=1409859#t1409859
Marx would be pleased. Or actually, he just was observing “natural law”. But he didn’t have access to Quantum physics at the time. But not too many of us do %@