Who would have thought that the race for the U.S. presidency would be close in the final days of the campaign, given all that has transpired? After the numerous sordid accusations levelled at Donald Trump, you’d think he would be lucky to get 25 percent of the vote. Right? But he is only trailing Hillary Clinton by a few percentage points, according to polls on Saturday, just four days before Decision Day. Some experts are saying it is too close to call — and that Donald Trump could emerge the winner.
I’m no expert on American politics, but I wonder if there has ever been a U.S. presidential campaign that has been as stressful and divisive for the American people as this one has?
I think most people in America know how important the vote is on Nov. 8, as does much of the world. Though, it is questionable just how much power the president of the United States actually has.
I open this post for debate and comments, especially for American readers. Why has this race been so close? Do you think the terror sown by ISIS has been a factor in the race? And if Trump does win, just how much damage could he — alone — do during his term as president?
And, finally, who do you think will win?
— Jillian
Photo: Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton during United States presidential election campaign 2016. (From Wikimedia Commons: Krassotkin (derivative), Gage Skidmore (Donald Trump), Gage Skidmore (Hillary Clinton)
Jillian Page 
No, this is unlike any campaign, since at least the 1800’s, when things were so heated and personal that candidates sometimes challenged each other to duels.
I think I said on one of the earlier postings, that was taken down, that three weeks out and what normally may have seemed a foregone conclusion could still see a few more twists and turns. Certainly has, hasn’t it?
I think there are two factors that have influenced things these final weeks. The voters who had abandoned Trump when the sexual assault tape came out, but now seem to have swung back to him, have been catagorized as less educated working white women. I’m not sure what this says about them, but they seem to be easily influenced back and forth.
The second factor are a group of FBI agents in NY associated with Rudy Guilliani who seem to have it out for Hillary. These are the ones wanting an indictment over Clinton Foundation business, which Justice Department attorneys feel there is no case there. When the FBI Director made his bi-partisanly criticized announcement about looking into more e-mails, it sounds like he was at least partially motivated by concern that there would be leaks about this from his agency and he wanted to head this off with an official statement (which he then bungled with a vague statement.) But, to have federal agents trying to influence a presidential election certainly is not something we’ve seen so openly before. I think more should be made of this, by Bernie Sanders or someone, but Hillary’s campaign seems to be just moving ahead with their ground game.
It may come down to the ground game, getting voters to the polls. Hillary’s team have a much better ground game, but it has been surprising, at least in the primaries, how Trump has been able to move voters to come out for him just with his rhetoric. Now, it’s a lot more voters, so we’ll see if that still works. It sounds like early voting has been good for Hillary, but we’ll see about that too.
In 2012, the polls showed the race tightening to a dead-heat, with Mitt Romney only 1 point behind Barak Obama. On election night Obama won by 4 points. The Democrats had a much better get-out-the-vote effort. Republicans say they’ve done better with that, this year, although they aren’t closely coordinated with Trump’s campaign. We’ll see how both sides do on Tuesday night.
The lasting effects of this campaign will likely be significant. Either way it’ll be a very divided nation where people have been turned against each other as not really seen before. I think Trump could be more influential if he loses, even if he does not much more after the election. The GOP will have to try and figure out what they really stand for anymore, and some think there could be a fracturing into another party. A lot say Trump doesn’t have much interest in being involved with the details of such discussions, but his campaign has already created this situation. He can just step away and leave the mess to others to deal with. If Trump were to be in office, then he has to deal with it all, as well as all the problems he’s railed about through the campaign. Got to wonder if he’s thought much about that…..
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Thanks, Scott. Very insightful.
This post will not be taken down — I have not offered any personal (dumb) opinions. Instead, I want this to be a post for readers, especially Americans, to talk about it all.
Cheers
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No, your opinions weren’t dumb, I think this campaign has created such high tensions that people quickly jump all over each other over normally small differences of opinion. I know of long friendships that have ended over this campaign, couples who can’t talk about it, and businesses, large and small, which have suffered due to the owner’s support for a one of these candidates. Hopefully, after it’s all over, people may cool down and see about mending some of those fences blown down by this storm of a campaign.
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[quote]The voters who had abandoned Trump when the sexual assault tape came out, but now seem to have swung back to him, have been catagorized as less educated working white women. I’m not sure what this says about them, but they seem to be easily influenced back and forth.[/quote]
Just on this point I saw/read one interview with just such a voter in which she said of Trump’s “grope tape” (I paraphrase): “We’re used to this, we get this sort of treatment all the time, what’s the fuss about?” In other words, Trump’s behaviour is commonplace within some strata of American society (and probably many others). Those of us who think such behaviour outrageous and thought it extinct are out of touch with, to borrow an old phrase, “how the other half live”.
peter
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The polls are almost certainly wrong. They are all based on a formulaic calculation of only a few hundred people. Almost all are by robocall which 95% are unanswered. The millennials who will decide the election are virtually never included in the polls. They don’t have traditional phones- they only have cellphones and are largely ignored by robocall solicitations.
Clinton will either win by a slim majority, or a humiliating landslide. To win, Trump has to sweep all of the toss-up states; Hillary only needs one. My guess? There’s an awful lot of Republican women who say they are Trump supporters- when their husbands might be listening. In the privacy of the voting booth, many of them will vote for Hillary.
Either way, the two main parties still don’t get it. A few years ago a billionaire said: “The pitchforks are coming” about the One-Percenter protests. Well, the villagers are at the gates with the pitchforks, but neither the RNC or DNC hear them.
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