What are the odds the United States will be launching military strikes on North Korea’s known missile sites in the weeks to come?
I’m thinking the odds are high, and that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un will not be antagonizing the U.S. with his threats of an intercontinental ballistic missile for much longer.
Previous U.S. administrations employed a “strategic patience” approach with North Korea that hasn’t had much effect. And I don’t see President Donald Trump having the same sort of patience for North Korea as his predecessors had.
Secretary of State Rex Tillerson has hinted at as much.
“The policy of strategic patience has ended,” Mr. Tillerson said, a reference to the term used by the Obama administration to describe a policy of waiting out the North Koreans, while gradually ratcheting up sanctions and covert action. Negotiations “can only be achieved by denuclearizing, giving up their weapons of mass destruction,” he said — a step to which the North committed in 1992, and again in subsequent accords, but has always violated. “Only then will we be prepared to engage them in talks.”
According to the paper, denuclearizing is not an option for Kim Jong-un.
Considering the pre-emptive, paranoid actions Trump is trying to take with his misguided Muslim ban in an effort to keep terrorists out of the United States, it doesn’t take much of a stretch of the imagination to deduce that he will be ordering the air force to drop bombs on North Korea — and perhaps even ordering a drone hit on the North Korean leader himself.
After all, North Korea may pose a very real threat to the United States — if they do develop that intercontinental missile.
And few Americans would criticize the president for taking military action against North Korea.
In fact, Trump’s approval rating would probably soar, and many would forget about his wiretap accusations and so many of the other seemingly outrageous comments he has made.
Indeed, much of the world — including many North Koreans — will applaud President Trump if he takes out Kim Jong-un, who should be very afraid right about now.
Photo: Drawing of Kim Jong-un. Source: En-cas-de-soleil/Wikimedia Commons
If only the world as you and President Cheeto see it were so simple. I envy your world.
“…and perhaps even ordering a drone hit on the North Korean leader himself.”
First, we have no intelligence assets in North Korea, so how do you order a drone strike if you don’t even know where he is? And, if we did know where he is, how many civilian casualties do you accept? Kim Jong-un, like his father and grandfather, maintains their grip on power with many levels of retaliation. If one member of a family does something the regime doesn’t like, the whole family is imprisoned or killed. He is protected from assassination because there are doomsday orders where if Un were to die, hundreds, if not thousands of innocent people will die at the hands of his close associates.
Second, any attack on North Korea, even limited to missile launch facilities and uranium enrichment plants will kill many thousands of South Koreans in a North Korean retaliation. Not that President Agent Orange could care less since they aren’t white. Also many US military will be in harm’s way since the US is bound by treaty to South Korea to defend them from attack.
Third, North Korea is closely tied to China. NK is one of China’s biggest economic partners- Iran and China are the only countries that will do business with them. Undoubtedly, if we bomb N. Korea, China will provide them with support, and probably Iran as well.
Trump could order a nuclear attack at any time, all by himself since the Korean war is technically still ongoing. (There was never an armistice with the north). Meaning, there’s no Congressional oversight.
I can’t see Trump waiting for North Korea to strike the U.S. with a missile. North Korea will either back down or the U.S. will hit it.
Perhaps the current sabre-rattling by Tillerson will get the Chinese to have a serious chat with the North Korean leader, and tell him to behave himself. After all, China has a lot to lose if it ends up going to war with the U.S. and its allies to defend one little nutcase in N. Korea. I just don’t see China going down that road.
… But Iran? If you read Nevil Shute’s novel ‘On the Beach’ you could see how this might play out. A massive nuclear war wipes out the northern hemisphere, and no-one knows what happened or how it started. The story is set in Melbourne, Australia; the nuclear radiation cloud is gradually drifting south, gradually wiping out all who are left. . .
If Trump or Kim start a nuclear war, we wont know what happened until after it is over – and then we’ll be in no position to do anything about it.
Make peace, not war.
The problem is, we have two hotheads in power: Trump and Kim. Two bulls charging at each other.