Has Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy made a fatal miscalculation?
A lot is being written these days about Russian president Vladimir Putin’s miscalculation concerning Europe and NATO’s resolve. Putin, they say, expected his invasion of Ukraine to be a cakewalk. Russian soldiers at the front are reportedly saying they were told they were liberating the Ukrainian people and that they would be welcomed with open arms.
Instead, they are meeting fierce resistance from a people Putin has said are “one” with Russians: “Russians and Ukrainians have always been one people,” Putin has said on several occasions. Which begs the question: why is Putin bombing his own people? But I digress.
The outcome of the invasion of Ukraine has never been in doubt. Ukraine will fall. And as Putin’s right-hand man was quoted as saying yesterday, the West will eventually get over its “hysteria” and it will be back to business as usual with Russia.
At the outset, Putin advised Ukrainian soldiers and citizens to lay down their arms and stay home. If they had heeded that advice, Russia would have taken Ukraine without force, the million or so Ukrainian refugees in neighbouring countries would still be at home, and the nation would have been spared the devastation of Putin’s bombs. Most important: no lives would have been lost.
The Ukrainian government would have been dissolved with a puppet regime put in place, and the current leaders could have been allowed to leave the country. And for the average Ukrainian, the overthrow of their government might not have changed their lives all that much. But now, their nation and their lives are in ruin, and the rest of the world has been destabilized.
There is an old expression by one Oliver Goldsmith:
“He who fights and runs away
May live to fight another day;
But he who is battle slain
Can never rise to fight again.”
So, why did the Ukrainian president lead his people into a battle they cannot win, with all its terrible consequences? With all the lives lost, never to rise to fight again? Why didn’t he step aside, retreat and live to fight another day?
OK, I know what many of you might say: One needs to stand up to a bully, or else that bully will bully more and more people. But there is more than one way to fight a bully. In this case, killing the bully seems to be the favoured option by many, if the #KillPutin hashtag on Twitter today is any indication.
The Ukrainian president instead went with the “live free or die” motto. I get that, on an emotional level. But what about all the lives lost, lives that could have been saved to fight another day, if necessary?
This is not Russia vs. Ukraine. It’s Putin vs. Ukraine. Only one life needed to be lost in all of this: Vladimir Putin’s.
Instead, Putin will survive, and Zelenskyy will die along with so many others on both sides of the battle.
What would I have done in Zelenskyy’s shoes? I would have put my full focus on removing Putin from power, either by assassination or working to depose him. I would not have allowed my people to be murdered by Putin if there was a way to avoid it.
But that is just me.
What would you have done faced with Zelenskyy’s dilemma?
— Jillian
Jillian Page 
When the Soviet Union broke up, Ukraine gave up their cache of nuclear weapons on the promise from the West and NATO that they (NATO et al) would protect Ukraine.
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Russia was also part of that agreement. The problem is that Putin still fears NATO. We don’t understand this. To us, it’s just an old defensive treaty with little bark and even less bite. Trump wanted to abolish it and most members weren’t even putting in a minimal effort. But Putin is paranoid. His mind is full of “What if?” and what might happen a decade down the road instead of “What is.” Plus he cannot see Russia as just another member of a happy European family unless Russia is running the show.
With his logic, I can see his calculations. NATO = hostile. He cannot have a hostile Ukraine in a hostile world and hope for Russia to survive. He’s thinking that if the West gets its act together, not even Russia and China together will survive. This is because if he had that kid of potential power, it’s exactly what he’d do. He either doesn’t believe that liberal democracy is here to stay or that liberal democracies themselves don’t want a world war.
As far as NATO is concerned they have lived up to their part. We trained their troops, we armed their troops. The agreement did not specify NATO boots in combat. Nobody thinks protecting Ukraine is worth WWIII. Here is the document spelling out the extent which NATO supports Ukraine:
Click to access 20160920_160920-compreh-ass-package-ukraine-en.pdf
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If I were Mr. Z… Tough to say because I don’t know what he knows.
I know what I would have offered. “Finlandization” is the word for it. To be officially neutral. I’d guarantee the Russians land access to Crimea. Even a water pipeline from a river in Ukraine to ease the water shortage in Crimea. Open borders for travelers. I’d maintain a small army incapable of any kind of offensive operation. Finland doesn’t have it so bad.
What they are really fighting over is Ukraine’s desire to become Western in culture and economy. Ukraine wants what Finland has. A lively economy, physical security, local control over local issues, Western culture, personal freedom. Those are incompatible with being incorporated into a Greater Russia.
Ukrainians have living memory of Russian occupation that includes starvation, slavery, and megadeaths. It is tough to sell the proposition that this time it will be ok. To the extent that Putin reminds them of Stalin, Ukraine will fight.
I do not know what has been offered and rejected. I don’t think Putin is willing to allow many compromises. Ukraine wasn’t his only demand. He’s also demanding that NATO roll back its borders, a complete non-starter. His reach exceeds his grasp.
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